Investors should be happy with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The chip design company decided in February to cancel its dilutive merger with ARM Ltd from Softbank (OTCMKTS:SFTBY). That will allow shareholders to not be diluted by the extra shares for ARM. That could help NVDA stock rise, assuming the company’s growth stays on track.
Moreover, it expects its first quarter 2022 revenue, which will come out on May 25, will be at least $8.1 billion up from $7.66 billion this past quarter. That works out to a consecutive compound growth rate of 26.1%. Moreover, on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, that will be 43.1% higher than the $5.66 billion in revenue last year. If its YoY growth keeps up at that pace, NVDA stock could be in for another great year.
So far, year-to-date (YTD) the stock is down 21.4% as of April 8 at $231.26, down from $294.11 at the end of 2021. That is quite a change from last year when it rose 125.2%.
Assuming Nvidia can make the same level of profits and free cash flow (FCF) as before, the stock could find its way back into positive territory. That assumes that its growth rate keeps at its blistering pace as in the past.
For example, for the fiscal year that ended Jan. 30, 2022, the company generated over $8.13 billion in FCF. This works out to a FCF margin of 30.2% on its $26.9 billion in revenue.
But in the fourth quarter its FCF margin rose to over 36% when it produced $2.76 billion in FCF on $7.64 billion in revenue. The point is if that same margin keeps up for the year ending 2023, it could show huge amounts of FCF.
Analysts now estimate that revenue will rise 30% to $34.9 billion. Applying a 36% margin to that figure means FCF could reach $12.56 billion. That is over 54.5% from the $8.1 billion in FCF last year.
But it also could push the stock market value higher. For example, assuming the market values Nvidia with a 1.5% FCF yield, its market value will be $847.33 billion (i.e., $12.56b/0.15). This is 45.3% higher than its $576 billion market value today.
In this scenario NVDA could be worth 45.3% more, or $336.25 per share. This shows that there is a path for NVDA stock to move higher.
On the date of publication, Mark Hake did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.