The day after earnings, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) opened just shy of $13. In the two weeks since, it’s tumbled to $8 for a roughly -40% thrashing. Such a move in a year would be terrible. We just saw it in nine trading days. And now, SOFI stock is in the single digits for the first time since going public following its merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2020. Until we see signs of a turnaround, this is a stock to avoid for a few reasons.
First, we’re in a bear market, and that’s a terrible backdrop for bullish trades in general.
Second, SoFi Technologies is the type of company that is entirely out of favor right now.
Third, even if we ignore those other reasons, the chart looks terrible.
Let’s take a brief look at each of these critical considerations.
The Market Tide
SoFi stock has staged some stellar rallies over the past year, but none have come in the past five months. This is not a coincidence. The Nasdaq peaked in November and has been pretty much sinking ever since. With this week’s whack, the index officially entered bear country by falling 20% from its highs. But if you look underneath the surface at the more speculative names, it’s way worse.
Think of market indexes like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average as the tide. Individual companies like SoFi are the boats. A rising tide lifts all boats, and a falling tide lowers them. Until the Nasdaq reverses its downtrend, bullish trades on SOFI stock have low odds of sustained follow-through.
Money Losers are Shunned
If you survey the stocks that have been beaten down the most in recent months, you’ll discover they have common characteristics. They are recent initial public offerings (IPOs) or SPACs, and mostly growth-oriented momentum stocks. They were trading at lofty valuation at their peaks, leaving plenty of room for them to pull back. Many were losing money and trading off the hopes of future profitability.
Essentially every one of these descriptions applies to SoFi.
In a zero-interest-rate world where inflation concerns are minimal, these types of companies can thrive. But that’s not the world we live in anymore.
With inflation running at multi-decade highs and over half a dozen rate hikes already priced in, money today is worth more than money tomorrow. Investors have adapted by shunning the companies they just recently loved. Every characteristic above is now a liability. And that hasn’t bode well for SoFi Technologies.
As a newer public company still in its infant stage, it lacks the institutional backing and history that larger companies can fall back on. That makes it an easier ticker to abandon when investors de-risk their portfolios.
SoFi Stock Chart is Terrible
If we cut to the heart of the matter, SoFi’s stock chart broadcasts a bearish message loud and clear. Allow me to break it down. The price trend is down on every time frame. The 200-day, 50-day, and 20-day simple moving averages are sinking fast. Distribution days have multiplied, and sellers are quick to snuff out the rally any time we get signs of accumulation.
The stock is bumping along at all-time lows, bringing all sorts of bearish implications. At one point yesterday, not a single soul on the planet who purchased after the IPO sat in a winning position. Not one. The urge to stop the pain or exit at less of a loss creates a mountain of overhead pressure that threatens to thwart any recovery attempt.
Even if you love everything that SoFi Technologies represents about the future of fintech, there’s no real evidence that backs a decision to buy here. If there’s anything this bear market has taught and re-taught us, it’s that prices can go a lot lower than you think before hitting the bottom.
On the date of publication, Tyler Craig did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.