Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) bulls are finally rejoicing. Shares shot up after Indonesia, one of the top five most populous countries globally, greenlighted its vaccine recently. That came on the heels of the biotech filing emergency use authorization (EUA) packages with several authorities, including the world health organization (WHO) and the European Union (E.U.). All of this has led to positive price action for NVAX stock.
For the bears, it was a stern reminder that the vaccine race was not over. Hence, it is the right time to purchase NVAX vaccines. Production and sales will both skyrocket in the coming year.
Novavax is expected to get to an annual run rate of 2.4 billion doses per year in January, Novavax CEO Stanley Erck told Yahoo Finance. As we already know, 2.07 billion doses are booked. However, with the increase in production, Novavax will make a lot more money.
And then there is the vaccine itself. It has the highest efficacy against the original strain, strong cross-protection for variants, no long-term side effects, and the largest level of neutralizing antibodies.
The logistics side is also well covered. The Serum Institute of India (SII) is the company’s partner and is the world’s largest manufacturer and distributor of vaccines. Although SII is the biggest partner, the company also has other partnerships with S.K. and Takeda, two prominent vaccine distributors in Asia.
Overall, the EUA approvals and vaccine roll-outs are positive near-term catalysts that you can exploit. Since the stock continues to trade at a discount to 52-week highs, now is the right time to pounce. Other catalysts are completion of phases 1 and 2 of the combination vaccine by March; and completion of the pediatric trial.
NVAX Stock Is Ready for Prime Time Action
Even NVAX bulls will acknowledge, the price momentum is frustrating. It is disappointing to see manufacturing and filing delays. NVAX stock is suffering right now, with shares trading at a steep discount to their 52-week high.
It’s the usual case of once bitten, twice shy. Investors are waiting on the sidelines for some positive news. However, while those concerns are warranted, one also has to acknowledge that there are bright spots. Numerous near-term catalysts on the horizon will boost NVAX stock.
Novavax has achieved a milestone of 100 million doses per month and is on track for 150 by the end of December. It’s projected that by 2021, total production will ramp up to 2.5 billion. SII and S.K. Bio has also inked manufacturing agreements with Novavax.
They are manufacturing under a license that offers profit sharing for half their doses, while the other half comes under contract manufacturing. It is heartening for investors, especially considering one of the main concerns surrounding how NVAX will produce and distribute the vaccine.
EUA filings are also ramping up. The biotech has submitted several packages in recent weeks. And filing with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will occur within this quarter. All of these will bump the stock price. Therefore, this is an excellent stock if you want some short-term gains.
Biotech Is Far From a One-Trick Pony
The company’s next-generation flu vaccine, Nanoflu, beats the previous leading candidate by 20% in three separate head-to-head trials. The market for this product is projected to exceed $9 billion within seven years. The combination of SII’s logistics and the vaccine means there is another money-spinner in the works.
And although it is further down the line, you cannot take Novavax’s combination Covid-flu vaccine lightly. The vaccine NanoFlu/NVX-CoV2373 has obtained strong responses to both influenza A and B and protection against the virus in preclinical studies. Novavax expects to have trial results in the next half of 2022.
The phase 3 trial will likely start September next year and finish in the spring of 2023, in time for revenues during flu season. Novavax already tested this combination shot on animals with very strong results. Immune responses were not affected when given as one dose instead of two separate doses at different times.
The probability of positive results is high, and if they are to be had, the vaccine will probably turn out to be monumental. It will also help the company leapfrog over Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), which lag Novavax.
NVAX Stock: Short-Term Gains Ahead
The future of Novavax is bright due to the near-term catalysts. With EUA approvals in many countries and vaccine roll-outs, it is great to invest in this one. The manufacturing issues are sorted. And the U.S. filing will take place before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, NVAX remains at an enormous discount to their 52-week high of approximately $332 a pop. Considering all of these factors, NVAX is an excellent vaccine play. Whether you are a short-term trader or looking to hold this one past the six months, there is something here for everyone.
On the publication date, Faizan Farooque did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Faizan Farooque is a contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Faizan has several years of experience in analyzing the stock market and was a former data journalist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. His passion is to help the average investor make more informed decisions regarding their portfolio.