I like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock.
I don’t think a week goes by when there’s not an Amazon delivery coming to my house, and I know my neighbors seem to be just as eager to shop on Amazon than I do. The delivery drivers know our street like the back of their hands at this point.
But AMZN stock has some problems at this point, and I don’t think they’re going to be cleared up any time soon. Third-quarter earnings weren’t great. And there are plenty of red flags surrounding the critical Q4 shopping period already.
I’m not saying that you should sell AMZN stock. But if you’re looking for a quick profit, Amazon won’t likely outperform the market for the next couple of quarters.
On the other hand, a 5% dip in Amazon in the coming weeks would be a really tempting signal to snatch up some discounted shares.
Here’s a closer look at the third quarter results and why I think Q4 may be problematic for this dominate e-commerce and cloud company.
AMZN Stock at Glance
First, the stock itself. Amazon trades at nearly $3,500 per share, but its chart looks more like a hospital EKG than a blue-chip stock. The peaks and valleys in 2021 are stomach-churning.
For 2021, AMZN stock is up 14%, which is solid until you look at the Nasdaq composite, which is up 22% in the same period.
Competitors eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY, up 31%), and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP, up 45%) are also doing much better than Amazon.
Part of the problem for Amazon is that it’s being compared to 2020 numbers. And with the Covid-19 pandemic, there was nothing normal about 2020.
Amazon and other online retailers had huge years last year as brick-and-mortar businesses shut down during the pandemic. Shopping online for groceries, cleaning supplies, toilet paper and basic household necessities consumed us all.
Now stores have reopened, kids are back in school, and many offices have returned to face-to-face environments. People are more willing today to shop in physical stores and Amazon is dealing with the fallout from that.
In late October, Amazon reported third-quarter earnings that disappointed investors.
Revenue came in at $110.81 billion, versus analysts’ expectations of $111.6 billion. Earnings per share was also a miss, as Amazon posted $6.12 per share versus analysts’ expectations of $8.92 per share.
In an interesting side note, the third quarter was the first time in Amazon’s history that its fast-growing Amazon services division posted greater revenue that its retail division. The retail side made $54.9 billion. But revenue from Amazon Prime subscriptions, advertising and its cloud component Amazon Web Services made $55.9 billion.
CNBC reported that if it hadn’t been for Amazon Web Services’ $4.88 billion in revenue for the quarter, the company would have lost money. AWS revenue rose 39% in the quarter.
Problems Ahead
The fourth quarter doesn’t look good for Amazon, and the biggest issue is the problem with the supply chain. I don’t know about you, but more often than not my two-day Amazon Prime deliveries are coming in three or four days.
It’s not Amazon’s fault. If they can’t get the products, they can’t ship them to me. But it’s also made me more willing to shop other outlets or actually visit stores to buy something.
Either way, the problem is going to get worse for Amazon before it gets better. Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky says the company will take a $4 billion charge in the fourth quarter from increased labor costs, productivity losses and inflation.
Operating profit in the fourth quarter will also take a big hit. Amazon is expecting a range of zero to $3 billion. A year ago, Amazon posted a profit of $6.9 billion in Q4.
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet kept his buy rating on AMZN shares, but he lowered his price target from $4,175 to $4,100.
The Bottom Line
With the busy holiday shopping season, you can usually expect strong fourth quarters from Amazon stock. And as long as Amazon hits analysts expectations in those quarterly report, and AWS continues to grow, Amazon stock is a reliable winner.
I’ve got a of confidence that AWS will be strong again during the fourth quarter. But Amazon’s heavy spending in pushing goods to customers, as well as the continued supply chain issues in the fourth quarter, are troubling.
And remember, Amazon (as well as other companies) are always evaluated on a year-over-year basis. For Amazon, that means being compared to pandemic-inflated numbers in Q4.
Amazon stock may manage to produce a modest gain over the next few weeks. That would be a pleasant surprise. But don’t buy AMZN stock now expecting a booming Q4 report.
It’s more likely that Amazon will continue its up-and-down ride, at least until the supply chain issues improve and the pandemic effects fade away.
On the date of publication, Patrick Sanders did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Patrick Sanders is a freelance writer and editor in Maryland, and from 2015 to 2019 was head of the investment advice section at U.S. News & World Report. Follow him on Twitter at @1patricksanders.